ASSESSMENT OF THE PROBABILITY OF TECHNICAL DEFAULT IN MODERN CONDITIONS

Abstract

The presented article includes studies of economic processes taking place twenty-five years ago, when there was a technical default on the main types of government debt obligations. Currently, politicians, historians, and public figures are assessing the significance of the 1998 default. The opinion of the majority of experts is formed from the actual result, which was felt by citizens living at that time and business representatives carrying out their activities. The classical representation of a possible situation with a technical default is presented in the studies of economic science and economic theory. The famous researcher John Maynard Keynes, who studied the relationship of economic influence on price changes, noted in his writings that the predicted result would be negative. Keynesianism has been studying the issue of transition to new forms of economic relations and price liberalization for a long time, the research results obtained are applicable in modern conditions. In 1998, the total public debt was approaching the amount of 200 billion dollars, which corresponded to 44 % of gross domestic product. During the period under review, oil prices declined, which led to a decrease in revenues from the sale of hydrocarbons. Unfortunately, in August 1998, the Government of the Russian Federation made ineffective decisions to suspend transactions on the futures market for collateral transactions, to refuse to artificially support the ruble, which led to a collapse in the dollar exchange rate, an unstable situation with energy prices.