ANALYSIS OF CONSUMER INFLATION IN RUSSIA

Abstract

In modern conditions, we often observe accelerated rates of inflation growth. This is due to the fact that our economy is in a state of crisis and requires expansion of money supply against the background of low interest rates. It is important to determine how the growth of money supply in Russia, the weakening of the Russian ruble against the US dollar and the reduction of interest rates by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will affect consumer inflation in the future in Russia. In the process of studying the scientific literature, it was revealed that the monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation creates conditions for economic growth in our country, focusing on the target inflation rate and actual consumer prices, changes the key rate, interest rates and money supply. An increase in the money supply may trigger acceleration in the growth rate of the consumer price index in Russia. Analysis of statistical data on the consumer price index in our country, the M2 monetary aggregate in Russia, the USD/RUB currency pair, the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation showed that in the domestic economy recently, against the background of the increase in the money supply, the weak Russian ruble and the soft monetary policy, increased consumer inflation has formed. The prices of vital food products have increased the most. The potential for interest rate cuts is limited. In conditions of high prices for consumer goods, it is necessary to predict the prospects for consumer inflation in Russia in a timely manner. For this purpose, a multiple linear regression equations are constructed that allow predicting the consumer price index in our country depending on the monetary aggregate M2 in Russia, the USD/RUB currency pair and the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.