THE FORECAST OF PRECIPITATION IN COLD SEASON BY THE WRF MODEL OF DIFFERENT VERSIONS IN THE URALS
Abstract
The success of the forecast of precipitation of different intensity in cold season by the mesolarge-scale WRF model of versions 3.2.1 and 3.6.1 in the Urals is shown in this article. Assessment of quality of the numerical forecast at different advance time depending on features of a relief of the region and type of the field of pressure is executed. The mesolarge-scale model predicts the existence and the amount of precipitation during a cold period of a year more successfully for the territory of the Cis-Urals. It is established that the WRF model of version 3.6.1 began to calculate more precisely the amount of precipitation at heavy snowfalls in the Urals that was shown in reduction of number of false alarms and admissions of the phenomenon. An example when the mesolarge-scale model issues the forecast of rainfall of poor quality is given. It is revealed that initial data of the mesolarge-scale WRF model contain mistakes which elimination directly depends on the improvement of the global GFS model.
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Published 2018-06-25