FORECASTING OF SPRING WHEAT YIELD BY METEOROLOGICAL INDICATORS ON THE EXAMPLE OF THE TETYUSHSKY DISTRICT OF THE REPUBLIC OF TATARSTAN

Abstract

The relationship between the spring wheat yield in the Tetyushsky municipal district of the Republic of Tatarstan and meteorological parameters characterizing the temperature and humidity regime in the 50-year period 1970-2019 is considered. A multiple regression equation is obtained, where the predictors are the yield of spring wheat, and the predictors are the average precipitation for may-June, the average amount of precipitation for the growing season (may-August), precipitation for the year and June, air temperature for June, and the average air temperature for the period may-June. Correlations were found between individual meteorological parameters, as well as between the actual yield and meteorological indicators. It is shown that meteorological conditions (precipitation and air temperature) of the spring-summer period (may-June) have the greatest impact on the crop. Analysis of the regression equations showed that there is a satisfactory agreement between the actual and calculated data on spring wheat yield, which allows using them for predictive purposes.